What is the "Red Mirage" and How It Shaped the 2020 Election

If you’re like most people, election night is all about watching the results roll in. Maybe you gather with friends or family, refreshing the page and tuning in to the live reports, watching the map as it slowly fills up with red and blue. But in 2020, something different happened, and it left a lot of people wondering: what is this “Red Mirage” they kept talking about?

Let’s break it down in a way that makes sense of all the numbers, colors, and terms that got thrown around. Here’s everything you need to know about the “Red Mirage,” the “Blue Shift,” and why election results don’t always look the way we might expect at first glance.

The Basics of the "Red Mirage"

First, let’s start with the basics: the "Red Mirage" describes an initial lead in the election results that seems to favor Republican (or “red”) candidates. This lead can look strong, even overwhelming, but it starts to disappear or “fade” as more votes get counted. In 2020, this “mirage” had a lot to do with how and when different types of votes were counted.

As election night began in 2020, the early results in many states looked like a decisive victory for the Republican side, largely due to in-person votes cast on Election Day. For a moment, it seemed like a clear Republican lead. But as the days passed and mail-in ballots were counted, this lead shifted, often in favor of the Democrats (or “blue”) candidates. This is what’s called the "Blue Shift," where the initial red advantage fades as more ballots are processed.

Why Did the Red Mirage Happen in 2020?

The Red Mirage in 2020 was all about the way Americans cast their votes that year—and the way those votes were counted. Let’s rewind a bit and think about the factors that were in play. The COVID-19 pandemic made many voters reconsider standing in line on Election Day, so we saw an increase in mail-in voting like never before. And studies showed that Democrats were more likely to vote by mail, while Republicans tended to vote in person.

But here’s the catch: not all ballots get counted at the same time. Many states process in-person votes first, since they’re simpler to verify and don’t need to go through the same security checks as mail-in ballots. This creates a bit of a lopsided start on election night because we’re only seeing part of the picture. Early on, we see mostly in-person votes, which leaned more Republican, creating the illusion of a “Red Mirage.”

What is the "Blue Shift"?

The "Blue Shift" is really just the other side of the Red Mirage. It describes the gradual increase in Democratic votes as more mail-in ballots get counted in the days after Election Day. When we think of a shift, it’s not so much a dramatic flip but a steady addition of votes that can slowly, and sometimes significantly, change the results.

In 2020, this shift happened over the course of several days, especially in key states that took longer to process their mail-in ballots. Places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia became central to this process because they saw a massive influx of mail-in voting and had strict rules about when those votes could be counted.

Why Do Different States Count Votes Differently?

It might seem confusing, but every state has its own laws and rules for how votes are counted. Some states allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, which can speed things up a lot. But others, like Pennsylvania, don’t start counting mail-in ballots until the polls close. This can create big delays in results, especially when there are high numbers of mail-in ballots.

This system can make it look like results are shifting wildly, but it’s just a normal part of the process. The Blue Shift doesn’t mean votes are being “changed” or manipulated—it’s simply the result of counting ballots that were cast by mail, often with more Democrats choosing this option.

When Do Votes Actually Get Counted?

Here’s a quick look at the typical order in which different types of ballots are counted:

1. In-Person Votes: These are often counted first and usually give us those early results we see on election night.

2. Mail-In and Absentee Ballots: These can take longer to count because of the extra verification steps. Some states allow these ballots to be processed early, while others don’t start until Election Day is over. In high-turnout years, like 2020, this process can take several days.

3. Provisional Ballots: These are ballots that need additional verification, often because there’s a question about the voter’s eligibility. These take the longest to process and are usually counted last.

In 2020, the record number of mail-in ballots led to a delayed final count, especially in key battleground states. Each of these states has its own process, which means the timing of when we see these results can vary dramatically.

The Importance of Patience

One big takeaway from the 2020 election is that sometimes, patience really is a virtue. It’s easy to want immediate answers on election night, but understanding the Red Mirage and Blue Shift helps us see why results might look a little lopsided at first.

It’s not unusual for a state to look solidly red on election night, only to lean blue as more ballots are counted. This doesn’t mean the votes are being changed—it’s just a matter of different counting times for different types of ballots. Knowing that can help reduce some of the stress and confusion around election night.

Will We See the Red Mirage Again?

The Red Mirage and Blue Shift might not be a one-time phenomenon. If mail-in voting continues to be popular, and if different states have different rules about when ballots can be processed, we could see this pattern in future elections. Some states are even considering new policies to allow mail-in ballots to be counted earlier, which could help get results sooner. But until there’s a nationwide approach to vote-counting procedures, the Red Mirage and Blue Shift might be here to stay.

Final Thoughts: Staying Calm and Informed

So, next time an election rolls around, keep these terms in mind. The Red Mirage and Blue Shift are just parts of the process. They don’t indicate anything suspicious; they simply reflect how ballots are counted. By staying patient and understanding that early results aren’t always final, we can all approach elections with a little more calm and clarity.

In the end, election results take time, especially in close races. Knowing about the Red Mirage and Blue Shift gives us all a way to understand what we’re seeing, without jumping to conclusions. So, sit back, stay informed, and let the counting process run its course.